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Wednesday, March 8, 2000
By Jeffrey Donovan Kuhnl, who makes no secret of his ambition to lead the Czech Republic into the European Union (EU) as the country's next prime minister, emerges from a recent parliamentary debate on the long-overdue 2000 budget bill decked out in typical Saville Row style. Like Kuhnl's concerted effort to speak in polished soundbites, his elegance is vital to understanding the man and his mission. The 46-year-old former journalist-in-exile is among the leaders of the rightist four-party coalition many observers consider only viable alternative to the ruling parties or the resurgent Communists. "We obviously have a great and heavy responsibility," said Kuhnl, elected Feb. 27 as chairman of the Freedom Union (US), which along with the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) is the main force in the four-party alliance. "We have to present a coalition with a united front, with a clear program of its own, in order to complete the process of reforms in the Czech Republic." Kuhnl is no stranger to understanding the importance of unity. The Freedom Union, formed in early 1998 by rebels soured on alleged corruption in the Civic Democratic Party (ODS) of former Prime Minister Vaclav Klaus, soared in opinion polls leading up to the last election in June 1998. But voters were scared away by the party's wishy-washy image, fostered by its brooding former chairman, Jan Ruml, who stepped down in December. They turned instead to the Social Democrats (CSSD), and to Klaus -- notwithstanding that the ODS had been ousted from government and lost popularity in the polls following a party-financing scandal. The situation now is eerily similar. Recent polls suggest a Kuhnl-led, four-party coalition could win 30 percent of the vote, with the Freedom Union garnering about 13 percent. That's why Kuhnl, ambassador to Britain from 1993 to 1997, and briefly minister of industry twice, has already hit the campaign trail. The next general election may be two years off, but Kuhnl and his coalition allies have their work cut out for them, if they are to persuade an increasingly dissatisfied electorate that they deserve to usher the country into the EU. Learning from the past "Our experience in 1998 shows that we have to start working now," explained Kuhnl, who spent the 1980s studying economics in Vienna and working for Radio Free Europe in West Germany. "It's not soon or good enough to start campaigning five months before the election. We must convince the electors now that the four parties can cooperate before the elections." According to recent opinion polls, the US and the KDU-CSL would each pull about 13 percent were elections held now, while the smaller parties in their coalition -- the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA) and the Democratic Union (DEU) -- would grab another 3 percent to 4 percent. Analysts agree that much of that support stems from frustration with the current government. Since the 1998 elections, the ODS has tolerated the minority Cabinet of its would-be enemy, the CSSD, in exchange for key posts in Parliament and influence in policy decisions. Whether such support can be maintained or increased will depend on the ability of Kuhnl and other four-party leaders, such as KDU-CSL Vice Chairman Cyril Svoboda, to hone their image and sharpen their message over the coming months. But observers already see cracks in the facade. "I think Kuhnl is a very good communicator, and if the four-party coalition can stick together, if they can unite behind a common program, then he stands a very good chance of playing a major role," said political analyst Jiri Pehe, a former adviser to President Vaclav Havel. "But sometimes," Pehe added, "Kuhnl can be a bit of an ideologue -- that is, he argues his points from a rightist stance without ever really bothering to explain why he takes that stance." That stance is business-friendly and pro-Europe, with a complete overhaul of the legal system a top priority. The four parties seem to agree on the major points of such a platform, but the alliance still faces several hurdles before it can shed its image as "loose" and "false" -- as Klaus has called it -- and present a convincingly united front. "This four-party coalition is a strange coalition because each party is doing what it wants," said Vlastimil Tlusty, chairman of the ODS deputies' group, echoing a scathing analysis by the Slovak newspaper Narodna obroda. "The coalition has no leader, no personalities, no common candidate list and no election program," the Bratislava daily wrote recently. "It has found no dominating theme Š it does not have any organizational background, and the public does not view it as a consistent party. It will be no surprise if it does not win the next elections." Kuhnl insists that the coalition can build a common program. Key issues, he says, include pension reform, cutting corporate and personal income taxes, eliminating property taxes and raising the value-added tax (VAT) to around 15 percent. "Many of these things will be unpopular, but they must be done if we are to become competitive in the global marketplace," Kuhnl said. He added that the alliance must remain open to a post-election coalition "with any democratic party," including the ODS or the CSSD, though Parliament could yet change the proportional electoral system so that any force with 35 percent would get an outright constitutional majority. "We might actually be in favor of that," he said, satisfied at the idea of going it alone. But his biggest test will be turning that highly technical platform into a simple, appealing message -- much as the ODS did with a series of clever slogans that helped win back unhappy voters in 1998. He appears to be making mixed progress. Looking to the future Adjusting his tie, Kuhnl's eyes -- and his rhetoric -- light up when asked to critique the ruling parties' economic policies. "The government is undermining public finances by passing off billions and billions of crowns in debts in extra-budgetary schemes," he said in the kind of language that might please Brussels bureaucrats more than disgruntled voters. "We all know this will amount to more than the formal state budget deficit." But, moments later, he turns American Revolution populist: "There can be no taxation without representation -- this is a basic tenet of democracy. We cannot allow the government to waste taxpayers' money and not be accountable for it!" Now all Kuhnl needs to do is account for his own ambitions. Jeffrey Donovan's e-mail address is jdonovan@praguepost.cz
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