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Senate vote's hidden fallout By Ondrej Benda Vote could change balance in lower chamber and Cabinet The Friday and Saturday, Nov. 13-14, Czech Senate elections may do much more than change a few names in the country's upper house of Parliament. Political players across the board see the fortunes of the small, right-wing Freedom Union (US) as a possible key to the country's entire political mix. If the party fares poorly, many suspect it could fall apart entirely, scattering its representatives among the other parties and possibly changing the balance of power significantly. If at least seven of the 19 Freedom Union's parliamentary deputies joined the Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People's Party (KDU-CSL) or the ruling Social Democratic Party (CSSD), the two parties would control enough seats in the Chamber of Deputies to form a coalition government with a parliamentary majority behind it. If that happens, CSSD will no longer need the tacit support of the opposition Civic Democratic Party (ODS) to govern. Though a US election failure is far from a sure bet, observers say the party's weaknesses are obvious. "The US is a party formed from the top," said Zdenek Zboril, a professor of political science with Prague's Charles University. He said the party has plenty of well-known political personalities at the top, but very little grass-roots support countrywide. "I do not want to prophesize, but there is quite a real danger that US will fall apart after unsuccessful November elections," he said. Vladimir Prorok from the political science department of the Prague School of Economics said he believes a Freedom Union split is possible, but not inevitable. Politicians in the parties involved were reluctant to look very far into the future. "It is too early to talk about this now," said KDU-CSL deputy Cyril Svoboda. However, Svoboda admitted that such speculations are being heard in political circles. "I know of such talk, but right now we are doing all we can for the four-party coalition to succeed." KDU-CSL is in an election coalition with the US, the Civic Democratic Alliance (ODA), and the Democratic Union (DeU) parties. Together they are trying to prevent the ODS and CSSD from gaining a three-fifths majority in the Senate and, with it, the ability to change the constitution. US deputy Michal Lobkowicz rejected rumors of a split. "Our party may be threatened by many things, but a split is definitely not one of them. These are speculations someone in the press keeps alive artificially," he said. The polls say the party and the coalition are doing well. A survey conducted by the Center for Empirical Research (STEM) for Mlada fronta Dnes and TV Nova, suggests that the four-party coalition candidates will make it to the second round of elections to be held Nov. 20 in 20 of the 27 electoral districts. Lobkowicz also rejected a possibility of the entire US joining a possible coalition of KDU-CSL and CSSD -- something Prime Minister Milos Zeman (CSSD) had tried to create after elections to the lower house last June. "After seeing the steps the social democratic government had done so far, I can hardly imagine US joining in," Lobkowicz said. The Cabinet has suffered through several media storms since it was appointed in July. These included remarks that increased tensions in Czech-German relations, accusations that the Social Democrats placed friends in partially state-owned companies and an indecisive approach to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty broadcasts to Iraq and Iran. Zeman says he would be ready to discuss a coalition comprising CSSD, KDU-CSL, and possibly even US. "We honor agreements," Zeman said in reference to the opposition agreement he had signed with the ODS in July. "But [the ODS] might not respect it. If they don't, a coalition is possible." Under the agreement, the ODS promised not to support any vote of no confidence against the Zeman government. However, the ODS has not agreed to support any of the CSSD's proposals in Parliament. Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Spidla, who is also the minister of labor and social affairs, said that a possible coalition of the KDU-CSL and CSSD is an option being discussed by some in political circles, but he said he is far too busy at the ministry to determine the likelihood of it happening. Both Zboril and Prorok said the US party does have some chance of succeeding in the Senate elections. But both also predict a failure for the party in the municipal elections to be held at the same time. "No matter whether they succeed in the Senate or not, unless something happens and the US gets more support from the regions, it will end up like the ODA," Prorok said. The ODA lost all of its seats in the Chamber of Deputies in 1998, but it retains several Senate seats. Nationwide municipal elections will also be held Nov. 13-14.
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